Methodology
This dashboard is an experimental satellite-account estimate built on the NSSA Vilnius 3.0 Crosswalk Model (v01). It is not official Stats SA data. Every figure on the public site can be reproduced from the assumptions disclosed below.
1. Framework
We apply the Vilnius 3.0 National Sport Satellite Account (NSSA) framework, which uses SIC7/ISIC4/CPA 2008 crosswalks. GVA (gross value added) is reported, not gross turnover — intermediate consumption and import leakage are excluded to prevent double-counting.
2. Core conversion ratios
| Direct GVA ratio | 53% | Applied to gross activated spend (Stats SA I-O convention for sport & tourism sectors) |
| Supply-chain uplift (indirect + induced) | 1.30× | Conservative; NSSA Economy Model tab uses up to 1.4× |
| GVA per FTE | ≈ R224,000 | Yields 12,150 FTE from R2.72bn total GVA |
| VAT effective rate | 15% on 55% of consumer spend | Standard rate; non-VAT portion = exports + zero-rated |
| PAYE effective rate | ≈ 18% on 30% of operations spend | Wage share of ops × blended marginal rate |
| CIT effective rate | ≈ 28% on vendor margins | South African corporate income tax |
3. Venue-weighted attendance model
Attendance is not a flat "average × matches" calculation. Each of the 8 venues is sized (Big / Mid / Small) and each match is tiered by importance:
| Tier 1 — Marquee, Proteas, knockouts | 85% / 75% / 70% fill (Big/Mid/Small) | Ticket R450 |
| Tier 2 — Big neutrals | 70% / 60% / 55% | Ticket R300 |
| Tier 3 — Smaller fixtures | 55% / 45% / 40% | Ticket R180 |
4. Visitor segmentation
| Domestic overnight | 78,462 trips × 4 nights × R1,800/day | R564.9m |
| International | 19,373 trips × 7 nights × R4,500/day | R610.3m |
| Day-trippers | 87,180 trips × R300/trip | R26.2m |
| International share of attendance | 10% | Optimistic but defensible for a global tournament |
The model does not explicitly net out (a) tourism displacement during peak October–November season, (b) substitution from other domestic holidays, or (c) the material effect of SA's visa regime on international conversion.
5. Operations & local content
| ICC + CSA operations spend | R3.00bn | Security, broadcast, logistics, hospitality, technology |
| Local procurement target | 75% | R2.25bn retained inside SA |
| Imported leakage assumption | 25% | May be understated for broadcast tech & specialist consultants |
6. Scenario design
| Low | Tier-3 fill rates −10pp; ops spend −15% | Total GVA R2.31bn · 10,327 FTE |
| Base | Published assumptions | Total GVA R2.72bn · 12,150 FTE |
| High | Tier 1/2 fills +5pp; tourism +15% | Total GVA R3.13bn · 13,971 FTE |
7. Caveats & exclusions
- Net public cost is not subtracted. Government outlays for security, transport, venue readiness and concessionary support could meaningfully reduce the R303m fiscal headline.
- The R45m diesel-backup reserve is a contingency cost, not an economic benefit — it signals load-shedding risk.
- Excludes: fuel levies, customs duties, municipal rates, higher-bracket PAYE, and longer-tail tourism halo effects.
- This is a single-model estimate, not a peer-reviewed publication. Cross-checks against BDO's SA-vs-India 2024/25 study suggest scaling is directionally plausible.
- The R15bn / 27,000-jobs figure circulating in 2025 media coverage conflates gross multi-year tourism pipeline effects with value-added; it is not comparable to the figures here.
8. Reproducibility
All headline outputs on this dashboard map exactly to the CWC Outputs and CWC Scenarios tabs of the NSSA Vilnius 3.0 Crosswalk workbook v01 (March 2026). The technical note accompanying that workbook is the canonical source of method.